National home prices seeing sharpest decline in two decades

The latest data from Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller shows that national home prices have fallen at the sharpest rate in two decades. S&P reported a 14.1% decline in the first quarter of 2008 compared with a year earlier.

According to S&P the areas reporting the biggest declines are those that grew the most in the recent real estate boom. Las Vegas leads the pack with 25.9% annual decline. Phoenix came in third with a decline of 23%.

Read more!

Fallin hard, but not too hard

Yikes! Arizona homes prices are dropping faster then ever according to figures from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. The value of an average home in Arizona slid 5.5% in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period last year.

At least Arizona didn't rank number one in the list. Florida homes lost 8.1% of their value, while Nevada saw a 10.3% decline and California saw a 10.6% decline.

Tucson home values didn't see quite the decline that Arizona saw overall. Year over year values in Tucson are down 2.9%, with a single quarter drop of 2%. Phoenix saw a big drop of 6.7%. Still puts Arizona home values up more then 72% over the same period five years ago, so homeowners that bought around 2002-2004 should have quite a bit of equity.

OFHEA has a great little graph that shows the trends in Tucson property appreciation

Read about Arizona home prices falling at record rate

Read more!

Latest new construction stats misleading

Just this morning several media outlets reported that new home construction was up in April, but the headline is a little misleading.


USA Today reported that construction of new homes posted a 8.2% increase for April, the biggest increase in two years. However when you read the full article you'll find that the strength in April housing starts came entirely from a huge increase in apartment construction, up 40% in April after being down 35% in March. Construction of single family homes was down 1.7% for April. Not good news for the housing market but good news if you're in the market to buy. Though home builders might not be lowering their prices, many are increasing their incentives or including free upgrades like granite counter tops or appliances. Some builders will negotiate more then others, so if you're looking for a great deal you might need to make a sacrifice like location.

Read more!

Depression on rise along with foreclosures rates

There was an interesting but sad article on the front page of USA Today that discusses the emotional toll that foreclosures are taking on homeowners. It reported that homeowners all over the country are frantic about losing their homes, and unfortunately many are becoming depressed, suicidal or are suffering other health conditions as a result of the stress. Crisis hot lines are being bombarded with calls from frantic homeowners with no where to turn. It's a tragedy when so many people are so deep in debt and feel the have no alternatives.

Nationwide foreclosure filings surged 65% in April compared with the same month last year, according to a report Wednesday by RealtyTrac. Some very scary statistics...

On a local level, Arizona foreclosure activity in April increased 26 percent from the previous month and 181 percent from April 2007.

Sixty-one percent of homeowners in the Western part of the nation reported housing costs as a very or somewhat significant source of stress.

One in seven homeowners nationwide worry that they won't be able to make their mortgage payments on time over the next six months and more than one-quarter fear their home will decline in value during the next two years.

Unfortunately the stress that comes with foreclosure could also be resulting in increased divorce rates. The inability to make mortgage payments is creating a division between couples; one wants to blame the other for the problems at hand and they just can't overcome the obstacles.

Just leaves you a little speechless.....

Read more!

Gas prices dictate where buyers buy

It's not surprising that gas prices are affecting where home buyers are looking at homes. Back in the day when Tucson saw it's real estate boom (2003-2006) buyers were venturing out to the farthest corners of our city in their property searches. Homes in the outlying areas were cheaper then those closer to the city, so they were being snatched up while the gettin was good. Now many of these same outlying areas are saturated with home inventory because 1. Nobody wants to drive that far when gas is so expensive, and 2. There's just too much inventory closer to Tucson and all it's amenities.


Areas struggling with this issue include Vail and Sahaurita. During the height of Tucson's real estate market, both areas attracted buyers who either wanted to or had to spend less then what current prices in town were (drive til you qualify). Each area offered new construction homes at relatively dirt cheap prices, so buyers flocked to these sites because of their affordability. Unfortunately these communities were and still are considered isolated by some due to the lack of amenities close by.

Increased gas prices are going to continue to have some impact on where buyers are choosing to live, but areas like Rancho Sahaurita will most likley remain steady due to affordability. Tucson home prices have continued to drop over the last few months, but Sahaurita still offers new homes at prices that can't be matched closer to town.

Read more!

Median home prices drop nation wide

Looks like the nation's median home prices fell hard during the first quarter of 2008. According to a report in USA Today, median home prices across the nation dropped 7.7% from Q1 2007 to Q1 2008. Sixty-seven percent of the 149 metro areas reviewed saw price declines, the highest declines since NAR began recording data in 1979.

The Western states seem to be struggling the most, suffering an average 12.3% drop in median home prices where overbuilding, sub prime lending and speculation were most prevalent.

According to the data, Tucson's median home price in Q1 2008 fell 8.8% from Q1 2007.

Median home prices in reviewed metro areas

Read more!

Low appraisal affects builders home price

Some clients of mine closed on a new construction spec home last week in Oro Valley and they ended getting quite a deal. Just 24 hours prior to close the builder had to adjust the sales price due to a lower then expected appraisal. The builder was really scrambling at the last minute, trying to get a new, higher appraisal for the sales price, but it just wasn't going to happen.


I haven't encountered this before, a builder's sales price coming in below appraisal. The reason it did, in our case, was that there are two short sales in the community. These "pre foreclosures" have dropped their prices so low that they're impacting property values around them. Great for new buyers, but bad for those already living in the community and trying to sell at the much higher price they paid two years ago. We're seeing foreclosures in every corner of Tucson, at every price range. The neighborhood my clients bought in isn't even three years old and it's not yet built out. It's going to be interesting to see how the financial struggles will impact the sales prices of the rest of the homes that are yet to be built.

Read more!

Tucson real estate sales statistics for April

Just got got the Tucson real estate sales statistics for April. The numbers show the Tucson market was down on most areas; both the median and averages sales price were down from the previous month and previous year. Tucson also saw fewer unit sales, active listings and new listings. The only the area that did see an increase was Pending sales, which saw almost a 10% increase over March.


- Tucson's average sales price for April was $253,729, a 2% decrease from March 2008's average sales price of $259,120. It's also a 8.91.2% decrease from April 2007's average of $278,577.



Tucson average sales price for April

- Tucson's median sales price for April '08 was $195,000 a 2.5% decrease from March's median price of $200,000 and a 13.30% decrease from April 2007's median price of $224,921.

- There were 1,547 Pending contracts in April 2008, an increase of 9.7% over the number of Pending's in March (1,410). It's also a 27.11% increase over the number of Pending contracts in April 2007 (1,217).

- The average days on market increased to 78 in April 2008, a 4% increase from March '08 (75) and a 20% increase over April 2007 (65).


Tucson average days on market for April

- Tucson had 8,808 Active listings in April, a 2.37% increase from 9.022 in March 2008, and a 15.21% decrease from April 2007 (10,387).

- Tucson saw 2,441 New listings in April 2008, a .12% decrease from March 2008, and a 20.87% decrease from April 2007 (3,085).

- The number of units sold in April 2008 (973) increased by 8.1% over March's number of 900. It's a 26.17% decrease from April 2007 (1,318).


With fewer new and active listings and more pending contracts, it looks like the Tucson real estate market might just balance itself out soon. The drop in average and median sales price can be attributed to excessive inventory as well as the high number of short sales and foreclosures that are popping up everywhere and impacting property values. In February 2008 the National Association of REALTORS reported their hopeful the passage of the economic stimulus package will jump start the sluggish housing market. The increase in FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan limits is expected to help new buyers afford homes and current home owners avoid foreclosure. Until we see a decrease in the number of short sales and foreclosures, Tucson's average sale's price is going to be low and its resale inventory high.

Read more!

Arizona in a recession

Several Tucson newspapers are are reporting what so many Arizona residents already know; our state's in a recession. According to Moody's Economy.com, Tucson is in worse shape then Phoenix.

The sluggish housing market seems to be having the biggest impact on Arizona's economy. As foreclosures continue to rise at record numbers and housing related employment continues to fall, the Arizona economy continues to drag. Higher food costs and gas prices are also playing a major role, leaving consumers struggling to make ends meet.

Just driving through Tucson it's easy to see the impact the economy is having on local businesses. Several furniture stores have closed their doors, while others are offering discounts and promotions ot bring consumers in. A number of retailers specializing in womens high end fashions have closed, and several fine restaurants are trying to entice diners with drink and dinner specials. A clerk at a local grocery store told me that more people are using coupons, and I've spoken to several people trying to conserve gas by scheduling all their appointments in one area on a single day so they avoid driving too much.

Many Arizona economists feel that Arizona hasn't hit rock bottem yet. Until the housing market re adjusts our economy isn't going to be able to recover. Some speculate it could be 2-3 years before that happens.

Read more!

A day in the life of me

My clients and friends are always amazed when I talk about some of the things I do as a real estate professional. They're first comment is generally "I didn't know real estate agents did that" after I rehash my day's activities. Every real estate professional has their daily "to do" list, but I seem to take on some odd jobs that others don't.

I can honestly say that no two days are the same and I've learned a lot of new things in this job. Just the other day I learned how to have a tenant (the home owner's daughter) evicted from a home and how to have an abandoned vehicle towed from a private residence (Gob's Towing is the only one that doesn't require vehicle documentation). I've spent mornings landscaping (picking weeds and trimming trees) at one of my listings. Today I spent the afternoon at another listing, getting estimates for paint and flooring contractors. I returned an abandon BBQ propane tank to a local convenience store. Each day I stop by one of my listings to water plants and chase away the bird that keeps trying to build a nest over the front door. Yesterday I shopped for staging materials so that I could decorate one of my listings (this may sound fun but it's not easy hopping from one store to another shopping for the perfect bargain item in 90 degree temperatures).

I do take on the "normal" tasks that every real estate agent spends their day trying to complete. When I'm in my office I spend much of my time on the computer, reviewing new listings and price adjustments to see if there's anything that fits the needs of any of my out of state buyers. I'm also evaluating comps for the current home owners that are trying to figure out if they can sell their home and upgrade to a new one while the Tucson market favors home buyers. Today I was arguing with a home builder about the appraisal that's far below the agreed upon sale price. I'm constantly sending out and responding to emails, which can be a never ending job since my Blackberry's become and extension of my body.

I think every real estate agent takes on some responsibilities that they never dreamed they would, but it's all part of the job. I'm sure some have taken on tasks that they really wish they hadn't. But a successful agent realizes that certain things need to be done to help a real estate transaction along, and sometimes they're the only one that can do it. All in a days work!

Read more!

Arizona foreclosures down slightly in March

Foreclosure activity in Arizona dipped just over 4.5% for the month of March while the rest of the nation saw an average increase of 5%. Still Arizona had the nation's fourth highest foreclosure rate for the third straight month.

About 1 in every 283 homes in Arizona received foreclosure filings in March. Foreclosure filings were reported for 9,199 properties; an increase of 106% over the number reported in March 2007. California, Florida and Ohio are still seeing the highest foreclosure totals

U.S. Foreclosure rates by state March 2008

Out of the top 100 metro areas ranked by foreclosure filings, Phoenix was number seven with one in every 70 households (or 23,135) receiving a foreclosure filing in the first quarter of 2008.

See the full report from RealtyTrac

Read more!

Tucson seeing measles outbreak

Tucson's a beautiful city with a lot to offer, but we do have an occasional fault or two. One of the big stories in Tucson right now is the measles outbreak that's hit our area. On February 23 a case of measles was confirmed by Northwest Medical Center. Since then 16 cases have been confirmed and are thought to be tied to a female visitor from Switzerland. It was originally thought that about 1700 people might have been infected.

Luckily that number was a lot lower, but there's still strong concern because measles are highly contagious and can lead to more severe complications like pneumonia and meningitis. The Pima County Health Department is jumping in and asking individuals that visitied the affected hospitals on certain dates to call and confirm their immunization records. They're also offering free immunization clinics to those needing vaccinations. Some Tucson schools are planning to vaccinate dozens of teachers and staff members to help prevent the spread of the disease, but one child within the Amphitheater school district might already be infected. That student as well as one other didn't get measles vaccinations as their parents signed exemption forms. Now anyone that doesn't get vaccinated wont be allowed back to school for two weeks.

Currently there are 64 confirmed cases of measles across the nation, and Tucson's cases make up about 25% of that number.

Read more!