Year of the grasshopper?

I've noticed a real increase in grasshopper sightings this year; not something we see too often in Arizona. If you step out at the right time of day you'll see them all over the sidewalks and streets. Although grasshoppers may be interesting to watch they seem to be causing real problems for some farming communities.

The Tucson Community Supported Agriculture reported that they are canceling their Fall session Thursday pick ups due to increased grasshopper damage. Crops were devastated from grasshoppers at "biblical proportions" according to one local farmer. So what's causing the increase in these herbivorous insects? Apparently it's a seven year cycle; grasshoppers multiply until the seven year crescendo and then start a new cycle. It looks like this year they're at their peak; after this season we probably won't see them again for awhile. Although local farmers will be relieved some of us will miss the entertainment!

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Tucson real estate sales statistics for August (Warning, you might want to grab your box of Kleenex now)

Ouch!!! The Tucson real estate sales statistics for August were just released and they don't look good! Looks like average sales price, median sales price, pending contracts and homes sale units were all down while number of new listings were up. Not a good mix....


- Tucson saw a pretty significant dip in our average sale's price in August; the average price dropped to $238,504, a 6.42% decrease from July's average of $254,854, and a 12.94% decrease from August 2007 ($273,815).

Tucson average sales price for August

- Tucson's median sales price for August '08 was $185,000, a .7.45% decrease from July's median price of $199,900, and a 16.25% decrease from August 2007's median price of $220,900.

- There were 878 Pending contracts in August 2008, a decrease of 8.54% from the number of Pending's in July (960). It's also a 14.26% decrease from the number of Pending contracts in August 2007 (1,024).

- The average days on market decreased by one putting us at 77 for August 2008, compared to 78 DOM in July and 68 DOM in August 2007.

Tucson average days on market for August

- Tucson had 7,763 Active listings in August, a 1.43% decrease from 7,876 in July 2008, and a 13.30% decrease from August 2007 (8,954).

- Tucson saw 1,952 New listings in August 2008, a 16.26% increase from July 2008 (1,679), but a 16.47% decrease from August 2007 (2,337).

- The number of units sold in August 2008 (903) decreased by 4.44% from July's number of 945. It's a 17.31% decrease from August 2007 (1,092).

Wow, what to say..... As I've said it's going to get worse before it gets better. There's a few other real estate professionals that agree with me when we're in private, but otherwise it's really kind of an unspoken subject. Don't want to appear too negative! Unfortunately we've got to be realistic. The economy is a mess, there's a lot of people that cannot obtain home financing, and I think to some degree the nation is at a standstill until this election is over. Home prices will not increase until we can rid our market of the foreclosures and excess resale inventory. Foreclosures will likely increase over the next few months so we can count on prices remaining low for some time. On the up side if you don't have a home to sell, you qualify for a loan and you have cash available for a down payment, there's some great inventory out here!

Tucson real etstate sales statistics for August

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Looking to rent? Tucson is the place for you!

Arizona home prices may be dragging but we have a great rental market!

Arizona and Florida both top a list of metro areas with the biggest rent drops. As housing prices continue to drop more homeowners are renting because they can't sell. More competition means desperation and lower prices. Until we see a decrease in inventory prices will continue to remain low.

The weak economy is also impacting rentals. As many Americans worry about what their future holds, renting might be a better option for those that don't want to be tied down financially.

Tucson has seen a annual rent drop of 2.4% and a vacancy rate of 7%.

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Arizona foreclosure filings for July

While the nation saw an average increase of eight percent in foreclosure filings for July, Arizona saw only a three percent increase, putting our state at number four in filings for the month. Florida actually bumped us out of the way to steal the number three position with an increase of fourteen percent.

Though Arizona appears to be slipping back on the list, we've seen a 127% increase in foreclosure filings over July 2007. One in every 195 properties received a foreclosure filing in July. When looking at foreclosures in metro areas, Phoenix ranked at number ten. According to Realtytrac, "bank repossessions are the fastest growing segment of foreclosure activity in July". Currently there are about 80 real estate owned properties on the market in Tucson.

I think we've got a ways to go before we see these numbers go down. There's still a large number of homeowners that have maxed our all that glorious equity they built up so quickly. As issues continue with the economy we should expect to see higher foreclosure numbers for the next few months. Once we eliminate more of the distressed properties from our inventory we'll see home prices creep back up along with unit sales.

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Autumn approaches slowly in Tucson

Though it's sometimes hard to distinguish seasons in Tucson, anyone who's lived here for awhile can tell that Fall is making it's way into the Old Pueblo. We see the normal signs like shorter days and cooler nights, lots of yard sales and kids returning to school, but there are several other signs that make me realize summer is almost over.

The monsoon is still hanging on in Tucson, filling the sky with those fluffy grey and white clouds that make you think of cool autumn breezes, brightly colored leaves and pumpkin patches. I've seen Halloween costumes and some Christmas decorations for sale at various retails stores. Some of these items started popping up on store shelves and QVC in July, but as we get closer to October they're becoming more abundant. Soon we'll see the Halloween specialty shops popping up in vacated retail buildings across the city.

The cooler overnight temperatures that Tucson is seeing makes it easier to get out and exercise in the morning. While out on my runs I've noticed packs of bicyclists making their rounds early in the day. September is when the really serious cyclists start full training for the El Tour de Tucson bike race which takes place in November. It's rare I see a single cyclist; most are packs of five or more and are dressed in full uniforms that proudly display their sponsors.

Each Fall in late September and early October I see a lot of my "snow bird" neighbors slowly returning to their homes for winter hiatus. Most seasonal residents make their way back here in November or December when the rest of the country begins bearing the brunt of ol' man winter. A significant percentage of home sales in Tucson are out-of-state residents buying vacation homes they can visit in the winter. With average temperatures in the 60's and 70's you really can't find a better place to live when it's snowing everywhere else. I personally am not seeing as many vacation home clients as I have in the past and I think the economy is playing a part in that. People just don't have as much money to spend on the extras they once did.

As the days continue to grow shorter and the temperatures cooler, Tucsonans still need to look at the calendar to realize that we're approaching Fall. Being from the Midwest, it was easy to see autumn approaching. I miss the seasonal changes that made being a kid fun. I remember walking home from school when the autumn wind was brisk and blowing the leaves from the brightly colored trees. We don't see those color changes in Tucson; our cactus are green all year long. I miss my mother forcing me to eat a reasonably healthy meal before we headed out for trick or treating. Most of my Halloweens I needed to wear a jacket over my costume because it was so cold. When Tucson kids are suiting up as their favorite Batman or Harry Potter character they needs to dress in layers as temperatures could still be in the 90's when they head out.

Tucson has some of the best weather in the country so we take what we can get when it comes to seasons. Once we're done with 90 degree days and monsoon rains we'll be happy campers. Then it's seven months until we need to turn on the air coniditioners again!

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Tucson's a great place if you're not flying through TIA

A big problem that myself and a lot of others have with Tucson is how difficult it is to travel to other destinations from our airport. My husband travels all week long so I'm very experienced with most Tucson airlines. It seems like every time he or I fly we encounter some type of problem that makes our travel day a nightmare. Depending on where you're going, there's a good chance you'll be flying all day and faced with several layovers to get to your destination. TIA has seen a 41% decrease in flights this year and it's impacted the travel plans and pocketbooks of almost every Tucson traveler.

Currently there's only ten airlines that offer nonstop flights from Tucson, with about 18 non stop destinations. These airlines include American, US Airways, Delta and Southwest. If you're flying directly to any of their major hubs you're in great shape, but not everyone is making Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta or Albuquerque their final destination. If you're departing from Tucson, you can bet you'll have a stop over in one of those four cities. ExpressJet was the eleventh airline that provided non stop service to and from Tucson but this service will be discontinued September 2 when they'll cease flying here and in the rest of the country.

(Warning...through much of this blog I'll be venting my feelings about US Airways so I apologize in advance. Since this is a major airline in Arizona I feel the need to warn travelers)

Besides the lack of non stop flights to and from Tucson, the cost to travel from our local airport can be more expensive then departing from Phoenix's hub, Sky Harbor. A large number of fliers actually drive/shuttle to Phoenix and fly direct because there are more non stop options and ticket prices can actually be cheaper. When flying with US Airways, flights directly from Phoenix are often less expensive then flying from Tucson and connecting in Phoenix. I've seen ticket prices cost as much as $300 more when departing from Tucson instead of Phoenix.

One huge problem for US Airways is that the majority of their flights run late, which throws a wrench into any travelers plans. I can't tell you how many times I've been sitting on the first leg of my trip, a US Airways flight to Phoenix, excitedly planning out my vacation schedule. There I sit, and sit and sit... when finally the airline announces that our flight will be delayed. It's not uncommon for these flights to be delayed by at least an hour, which is really frustrating when the actual flight to Phoenix is only 20 minutes long, and the drive time to Phoenix is about one hour. There's a lot of people who feel it's just more practical to drive directly to Sky Harbor to ensure they're going to catch their flight. I'm now one of those people. I'd rather spend a little time and money driving to Phoenix then risk missing my connection because of flight delays.

US Airways isn't the only airline that has difficulties, they just seem to be the most consistent with their issues. Every airline that comes through the Tucson International Airport has their good days and bad. American sees weather and traffic congestion delays in Dallas all the time, but being delayed in Dallas doesn't bother me as much as being stuck in Phoenix. My word of advice is if you're flying US Airways through Phoenix, have a backup plan and a carry on!

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Housing starts continue to drop; Tucson home builders

The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that housing starts nationally plummeted almost 11% in July to it's lowest pace in 17 years. Construction of single-family homes in July fell 2.9% to a pace of 641,000, lowest since January 1991. Many home builders in Tucson are struggling as they continue to drop home prices that are being impacted by high resale inventory and surging foreclosures and short sales.

In Oro Valley there are quite a few home builders that are trying desperately to sell off their remaining home sites, spec homes and models. All of these builders have dropped their prices significantly since the communities first opened around 2005. One of Tucson's biggest builders, Pulte, has dropped the base prices drastically in their high end development of Sienna; prices are about $100K less then they were in 2006. Homes that once started at $642K are now starting at $542K, and some of their spec homes have recently old for almost $200K less then the original 2006 prices. This particular community is not yet built out and is already seeing a number of short sales, which are impacting surrounding property values.

Nicholas homes is another builder that's really struggling in Oro Valley. The Stonefield community still has almost half their home sites available and their base prices have dropped about 17% since December 2005. Home prices that once started in the mid $300K's are now starting around $276K. I drove through this community last week and noticed how run down and unkempt the model's exteriors looked. Weeds and landscape were out of control which made the homes looked like they'd been abandoned. One of the models is currently on the market for $449K. Considering the base price of this home is now $339K, it better have some incredible upgrades to warrant this price.

High fuel prices are impacting home builders located outside Tucson as buyers avoid developments that require a long drive time. Several Tucson builders are lowering prices to "lure" buyers that would might otherwise avoid their communities due to distance from amenities. New construction home sites as well as resale homes continue to sit in Red Rock and Vail because buyers don't want to drive so far outside the city.

Until Tucson home builders can sell off some of the existing inventory their "giving away" our resale market will continue to remain sluggish. Once we can eliminate the builder spec inventory that's available buyers should begin focusing on resale homes; this should help reduce our resale inventory and help to stabilize the market.

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