Ewwwww a snake!

Clients always ask me if I've ever had a problem with snakes while living in Tucson. My reply has always been no because I could honestly say the only place I've seen a snake is the zoo or Desert Museum. That was until today!


I saw this little beauty by the side of the road as I headed off on my morning run. It wasn't alive, but was still a bit intimidating! According to my National Audobon Society Nature Guide this snake is a Coachwhip, which can actually be found in several different colors depending what region it's in. A pure black coachwhip is not that common. It's not a venomous snake and it has an average length of about 5 feet. This particular snake was a long one at about five feet. I'm guessing on that; even though it wasn't alive I didn't want to get too close!

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Dust Devils you say?

One of the reasons I was anxious to get out of the Midwest is because I HATED the weather, especially tornadoes. Imagine how surprised I was when I witnessed my first Arizona style cyclone, or Dust Devil.

While I was out driving today I spotted a dust devil and after pointing it out to my clients I realized that most people new to Tucson have no clue what they are. A Dust Devil is a rotating updraft that's generally about three feet in diameter with a maximum speed of 45 mph. The rotating winds pull loose debris like sand, weeds and gravel from the ground and raise them into the "funnel" as it follows it's short lived (less then a minute) route along the desert and roadways. While dust devils are usually harmless, they can be annoying if they set their path through you backyard picnic. On occasion there have been stronger dust devils recorded, with winds in excess of 75 mph. I witnessed one several years ago that blew over large event tents and folding tables at a tennis tournament. The biggest hazard that dust devils produce is the flying gravel that can crack your windshield. My advice is if you see a dust devil avoid it; get under cover or pull over and wait for it to pass. Better to be safe then dusty!

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Tucson homes sales by area

Since we're beginning to see a little more activity in the Tucson real estate market I thought I'd add the stats for home sales by area. No commentary today just the facts...

Central Tucson saw the biggest bump in sales prices in March with an increased sales prices of 51%. The North, extended Northwest and extended West portions of Tucson saw the biggest decreases in sales price; around 21%-22%. Northwest and Southwest Tucson saw the smallest increases, with NW Tucson seeing only a 3% increase in sales prices and SW Tucson seeing a 1% increase.

Tucson Real Estate Sales Price by Area

Several areas in Tucson saw an increase in days on market while others saw fewer days on market. North, NW, SW and West saw increased days, with West Tucson seeing the biggest increase of 18 days active. The extended NW part of Tucson saw the biggest decrease of 44 days.

Tucson Real Estate Days on Market

It looks like three bedrooms properties continue to be the most popular choice with buyers. Three bedrooms residences sold more units then any other in March.

Units Sold per Area by # of Bedrooms

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Condo loans could be difficult to get

Looks like refinancing or getting a loan for a condo purchase is going to get tough. Underwriting changes by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as new restrictions by private mortgage insurers are going to limit the number of loans available for condo purchases.


Kenneth Harney, a nationally known columnist on real estate, reported that many private mortgage insurers will no longer write coverage on condominiums in hundreds of areas across the country that are designated as having declining markets. Even in parts of the country where real estate markets are healthy there are going to be difficulties. Buyers will be required to put a least 10% down, and if the condo project's ownership is made up of more than 30% investors then all buyers loan applications will automatically be turned down. Buyers with 20 % or more down will avoid paying PMI so they won't be affected with the new restrictions.

These new procedures are going to be time consuming for lenders as they're going to require a lot of research on condo project characteristics. Legal documents, condo association operating budgets, percentage of unit owners that are late in association fees, and percentage of units owned by investors are just a few of the areas that will need to be investigated in order to insure a new loan. On top of that lenders are going to be required to warranty their research. Fannie Mae said the new procedures are designed to "protect borrowers and manage increased credit risk in the market".

Tucson's condo market could be seeing some hard times ahead. In the last few years several Tucson apartment complexes were converted into condominiums. Needless to say we have a lot if condos in the Tucson area. As of today there are about 150 condo units for sale in North Tucson alone. The new restrictions could have a big impact on local condo sales. It's going to be interesting to see the sales numbers over the next few months!

Securing a loan for a condo might become even tougher

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Arizona earthquakes a common but uneventful occurrence

What a way to start your morning; jolted awake by your bed shaking, your house creaking and pictures falling off your walls. That's exactly how many residents in the Midwest were awakened this morning, startled by a 5.2 earthquake based in Southern Illinois. We don't hear about many earthquakes hitting the mid section of the nation, so it made me wonder how likely it is that Arizona could be rattled by one.

When you really investigate the potential for earthquakes in Arizona you'll find it's not as unlikely as you might think. If you look at earthquake maps you'll see that Arizona has a lot fault lines, with the strongest concentration being in the Northwest, Southwest and Central parts of the state. The Arizona Nevada border, right around where the Colorado Plateau ends, is where the most significant Arizona fault lines are located. These fault lines, the Toroweap, Hurricane, and Grand Wash faults, feed through the rest of the Northern portion of our state.

Courtesy of AEIC

Most of the epicenters have fallen in the North Central part of state, around the Arizona Nevada border. One of the biggest magnitude epicenters fell right around Tucson.

Courtesy of AEIC

Earthquakes have been recorded in Arizona since the mid 1800's, but most have been pretty insignificant (around a 2. magnitude) The most recently recorded Arizona earthquake I could find information on occurred at the Arizona Utah border on April 5. It was only a 1.8 magnitude, so no one would have even noticed that it occurred. The strongest earthquake to strike Arizona occurred July 1959 and was recorded as a 5.6 magnitude. That quake rattled homes, knocking loose bricks on chimneys and breaking windows. 1989 saw the most seismic activity in Arizona, with just under 200 events including quakes and aftershocks occurring.

Recently there's been a lot of speculation about when the next big earthquake will hit California, but I'm wondering when Arizona will have it's next significant quake. The Arizona Nevada border has been seeing a lot of minor seismic activity since the beginning of the year. One wonders if this is a sign of things to come!

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Tucson real estate sales statistics for March

I'm a little late posting but here are the Tucson real estate sales statistics for March. Looks like Tucson saw a little Spring "bump"; the number of home sales units and pending contracts increased, but the average sales price slid down just over 1%.

- Tucson's average sales price for March was $259,120, a 1.15% decrease from February 2008's average sales price of $262,155. It's also a 4.2% decrease from March 2007's average of $270,648.

Tucson average sales price for March

- Tucson's median sales price for March '08 was $200,000 a .5% increase from February's median price of $199,900 and a 9.42% decrease from March 2007's median price of $220,815.

- There were 1,410 Pending contracts in March 2008, an increase of 30.67% over the number of Pending's in February (1,079). It's also a 18.28% increase over the number of Pending contracts in February 2007 (1,192).

- The average days on market dropped to 75 in March 2008, a 7.4% decrease from February '08 (81) and a 17% increase over March 2007 (64).

Tucson average days on market for March

- Tucson had 9,022 Active listings in March, a 1.59% decrease from February 2008, and a 11.41% decrease from March 2007 (10,185).

- Tucson saw 2,444 New listings in March 2008, a .49% decrease from February 2008, and a 9.81% decrease from March 2007 (2,710).

- The number of units sold in March 2008 (900) increased by 26.76% over February's number of 710. It's a 32.78% decrease from March 2007 (1,339).

All in all the Tucson real estate market got a little pick me up in March. The increase in pending contracts and home sales units tells us that more homes were seeing activity during the month. The average days on market went down, but I don't put too much faith into that number since it can be easily manipulated. If we continue to see fewer new listings and more unit sales we'll eventually begin to work through our excessive inventory and balance out this crazy market.

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Poll shows fewer people plan on buying homes

According to a poll conducted by the Associated Press-AOL Money & Finance, a growing number of Americans are stressed about the current state of the real estate market, and it's impacting their decisions about real estate purchases. Not at all surprising when we see that gasoline and food costs are continuing to climb, forcing many homeowners to make some cold hard decisions about what they can and can't afford.

Almost sixty percent of those polled in this survey said they definitely won't be buying a home in the next two years. More then a quarter of the homeowners polled said they worry their home will lose value over the next two years, and one in seven mortgage holders are afraid they won't be able to make their mortgage payments on time over the next six months. These statistics are pretty overwhelming but they say what everyone already knows; people are unsure and scared of what the future holds. Moving to a new home is a luxury for many, and with gasoline prices starting over $3 a gallon, it's a luxury that more people are putting on the back burner.

As everyone knows, real estate markets vary by area. Yes Arizona is seeing some tough times right now, but it's not as bad here as it is in much of the country. Though the average sales price in Tucson was down about 1% from February to March, home sales increased 26% over the same period. We're still seeing a high number of foreclosures; one in 264 Arizona homes received foreclosure notices in February. Many of those were investors that bought with the intention of "flipping" the property, financed most of the home's purchase price and are now stuck with an extra mortgage they can't afford. Some were borrowers that just bit off more then they could chew. Whatever the reason, the large number of foreclosures are slowing down the rest of the local real estate market. Until the inventory of foreclosure homes begins to shrink, Tucson's resale market will continue to drag behind what it once was.

Right now most of my clients are buyers searching for second homes, hoping to find a place they can eventually retire in. These individuals don't need to sell in order to buy, which is the perfect situation to be in. There's great inventory out here right now, with just over 2000 homes available in NW Tucson alone. It's a great time to take advantage of our local market and buy while many home sellers are willing to negotiate any deal they can in order to sell. Deals are out here if your persistent, and buyers are in the driver's seat

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