Autumn approaches slowly in Tucson

Though it's sometimes hard to distinguish seasons in Tucson, anyone who's lived here for awhile can tell that Fall is making it's way into the Old Pueblo. We see the normal signs like shorter days and cooler nights, lots of yard sales and kids returning to school, but there are several other signs that make me realize summer is almost over.

The monsoon is still hanging on in Tucson, filling the sky with those fluffy grey and white clouds that make you think of cool autumn breezes, brightly colored leaves and pumpkin patches. I've seen Halloween costumes and some Christmas decorations for sale at various retails stores. Some of these items started popping up on store shelves and QVC in July, but as we get closer to October they're becoming more abundant. Soon we'll see the Halloween specialty shops popping up in vacated retail buildings across the city.

The cooler overnight temperatures that Tucson is seeing makes it easier to get out and exercise in the morning. While out on my runs I've noticed packs of bicyclists making their rounds early in the day. September is when the really serious cyclists start full training for the El Tour de Tucson bike race which takes place in November. It's rare I see a single cyclist; most are packs of five or more and are dressed in full uniforms that proudly display their sponsors.

Each Fall in late September and early October I see a lot of my "snow bird" neighbors slowly returning to their homes for winter hiatus. Most seasonal residents make their way back here in November or December when the rest of the country begins bearing the brunt of ol' man winter. A significant percentage of home sales in Tucson are out-of-state residents buying vacation homes they can visit in the winter. With average temperatures in the 60's and 70's you really can't find a better place to live when it's snowing everywhere else. I personally am not seeing as many vacation home clients as I have in the past and I think the economy is playing a part in that. People just don't have as much money to spend on the extras they once did.

As the days continue to grow shorter and the temperatures cooler, Tucsonans still need to look at the calendar to realize that we're approaching Fall. Being from the Midwest, it was easy to see autumn approaching. I miss the seasonal changes that made being a kid fun. I remember walking home from school when the autumn wind was brisk and blowing the leaves from the brightly colored trees. We don't see those color changes in Tucson; our cactus are green all year long. I miss my mother forcing me to eat a reasonably healthy meal before we headed out for trick or treating. Most of my Halloweens I needed to wear a jacket over my costume because it was so cold. When Tucson kids are suiting up as their favorite Batman or Harry Potter character they needs to dress in layers as temperatures could still be in the 90's when they head out.

Tucson has some of the best weather in the country so we take what we can get when it comes to seasons. Once we're done with 90 degree days and monsoon rains we'll be happy campers. Then it's seven months until we need to turn on the air coniditioners again!

Read more!

Tucson's a great place if you're not flying through TIA

A big problem that myself and a lot of others have with Tucson is how difficult it is to travel to other destinations from our airport. My husband travels all week long so I'm very experienced with most Tucson airlines. It seems like every time he or I fly we encounter some type of problem that makes our travel day a nightmare. Depending on where you're going, there's a good chance you'll be flying all day and faced with several layovers to get to your destination. TIA has seen a 41% decrease in flights this year and it's impacted the travel plans and pocketbooks of almost every Tucson traveler.

Currently there's only ten airlines that offer nonstop flights from Tucson, with about 18 non stop destinations. These airlines include American, US Airways, Delta and Southwest. If you're flying directly to any of their major hubs you're in great shape, but not everyone is making Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta or Albuquerque their final destination. If you're departing from Tucson, you can bet you'll have a stop over in one of those four cities. ExpressJet was the eleventh airline that provided non stop service to and from Tucson but this service will be discontinued September 2 when they'll cease flying here and in the rest of the country.

(Warning...through much of this blog I'll be venting my feelings about US Airways so I apologize in advance. Since this is a major airline in Arizona I feel the need to warn travelers)

Besides the lack of non stop flights to and from Tucson, the cost to travel from our local airport can be more expensive then departing from Phoenix's hub, Sky Harbor. A large number of fliers actually drive/shuttle to Phoenix and fly direct because there are more non stop options and ticket prices can actually be cheaper. When flying with US Airways, flights directly from Phoenix are often less expensive then flying from Tucson and connecting in Phoenix. I've seen ticket prices cost as much as $300 more when departing from Tucson instead of Phoenix.

One huge problem for US Airways is that the majority of their flights run late, which throws a wrench into any travelers plans. I can't tell you how many times I've been sitting on the first leg of my trip, a US Airways flight to Phoenix, excitedly planning out my vacation schedule. There I sit, and sit and sit... when finally the airline announces that our flight will be delayed. It's not uncommon for these flights to be delayed by at least an hour, which is really frustrating when the actual flight to Phoenix is only 20 minutes long, and the drive time to Phoenix is about one hour. There's a lot of people who feel it's just more practical to drive directly to Sky Harbor to ensure they're going to catch their flight. I'm now one of those people. I'd rather spend a little time and money driving to Phoenix then risk missing my connection because of flight delays.

US Airways isn't the only airline that has difficulties, they just seem to be the most consistent with their issues. Every airline that comes through the Tucson International Airport has their good days and bad. American sees weather and traffic congestion delays in Dallas all the time, but being delayed in Dallas doesn't bother me as much as being stuck in Phoenix. My word of advice is if you're flying US Airways through Phoenix, have a backup plan and a carry on!

Read more!

Housing starts continue to drop; Tucson home builders

The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that housing starts nationally plummeted almost 11% in July to it's lowest pace in 17 years. Construction of single-family homes in July fell 2.9% to a pace of 641,000, lowest since January 1991. Many home builders in Tucson are struggling as they continue to drop home prices that are being impacted by high resale inventory and surging foreclosures and short sales.

In Oro Valley there are quite a few home builders that are trying desperately to sell off their remaining home sites, spec homes and models. All of these builders have dropped their prices significantly since the communities first opened around 2005. One of Tucson's biggest builders, Pulte, has dropped the base prices drastically in their high end development of Sienna; prices are about $100K less then they were in 2006. Homes that once started at $642K are now starting at $542K, and some of their spec homes have recently old for almost $200K less then the original 2006 prices. This particular community is not yet built out and is already seeing a number of short sales, which are impacting surrounding property values.

Nicholas homes is another builder that's really struggling in Oro Valley. The Stonefield community still has almost half their home sites available and their base prices have dropped about 17% since December 2005. Home prices that once started in the mid $300K's are now starting around $276K. I drove through this community last week and noticed how run down and unkempt the model's exteriors looked. Weeds and landscape were out of control which made the homes looked like they'd been abandoned. One of the models is currently on the market for $449K. Considering the base price of this home is now $339K, it better have some incredible upgrades to warrant this price.

High fuel prices are impacting home builders located outside Tucson as buyers avoid developments that require a long drive time. Several Tucson builders are lowering prices to "lure" buyers that would might otherwise avoid their communities due to distance from amenities. New construction home sites as well as resale homes continue to sit in Red Rock and Vail because buyers don't want to drive so far outside the city.

Until Tucson home builders can sell off some of the existing inventory their "giving away" our resale market will continue to remain sluggish. Once we can eliminate the builder spec inventory that's available buyers should begin focusing on resale homes; this should help reduce our resale inventory and help to stabilize the market.

Read more!

Tucson real estate sales stats for July

Tucson real estate sale statistics for July are out and it looks like the market may be on it's way to slowly stabilizing. During July Tucson saw fewer new listings, while the average sales price dipped by just 1%, and median home price remained literally unchanged from the previous month. Could this be the light at the end of the tunnel?

- Tucson saw a slight dip in our average sale's price in July; the average price dropped to $254,854, a 1.01% decrease from June's average of $257,449, and a 4.84% decrease from July 2007 ($267,808).


Tucson average sales price for July

- Tucson's median sales price for July '08 was $199,900, a .05% decrease from June's median price of $200,000, but a 7.88% decrease from July 2007's median price of $217,000.

- There were 960 Pending contracts in July 2008, a increase of almost 1% over the number of Pending's in June (951). It's also a 45.98% decrease over the number of Pending contracts in June 2007 (1,777).

- The average days on market remained unchanged at 78 in July 2008, but still a 20% increase from June '07 (65) .


Tucson average days on market for July

- Tucson had 7,876 Active listings in July, a 3.24% decrease from 8,140 in June 2008, and a 9.39% decrease from July 2007 (8,692).

- Tucson saw 1,679 New listings in July 2008, a 19.86% decrease from June 2008 (2,095) , and a 39.30% decrease from July 2007 (2,766).

- The number of units sold in July 2008 (945) decreased by 8.61% from June's number of 1034. It's a 20.05% decrease from July 2007 (1,182).

July is typically a slower month for real estate in Tucson. The temperatures are hot and the summer monsoons make it very humid. We see very few out of state visitors during our summer months so retirees and second home buyers aren't taking advantage of the great inventory that's available. Those that are buying are generally job relocations trying to squeeze a move in the school year starts.

I'm really hoping these numbers are a reflection of the stabilization that Tucson's housing market needs, but there's no way to tell until we see real estate stats for the next few months. If we continue to see fewer new listings and more unit sales, we'll be on the right track to reducing our Days of Inventory, which was at about 258 days as of July. Though this number seems relatively high, it's dropped by about 50% since January '08, meaning we might be headed in right direction.

Get all the latest Tucson real estate numbers at the TAR Monthly Statistical Digest

Read more!

Million dollar bank owned homes popping up everywhere

Photo courtesy to Tucson MLS

Everyday I'm amazed when I see another "bank owned" property come on the market. It's not the fact that so many homes are bank owned, but that quite a few of them are million dollar custom homes.


Just check out this one that's located in The Gallery at Dove Mountain. In Tucson there's currently three short sales, one bank owned and one foreclosure property that are listed with prices over one million dollars.

Read more!

And we thought Tucson's housing market was bad...

Photo courtesy of detnews.com

You know the real estate market is tough when a home is priced at $1 and it still takes nineteen days to find a buyer....

This "quaint" little home in Detroit sold for a big fat dollar after selling for $65,000 in 2006. It sounds like the house was pretty much a scrap heap by the time it went on the market, so the new homeowners really have their work cut out for them!

Read more!

Tucson residents looking for carpool buddies

A number of Tucson residents commute to Phoenix for work on a daily basis and the costs involved are breaking the bank for some. With fuel prices still high there's been a lot of talk about car pooling as a way to save money.

Even for those residents that work in the Tucson area, the commute to and from their jobs can be quite a drive. Some of Tucson's least expensive housing is located in rural areas that require long distance driving to get to local amenities, so driving to work just adds on the financial burden. I found a couple of great sites for Tucsonans looking to carpool locally or outside the city, and from what I've seen there's a lot of Tucson residents that are looking to share commuting expenses. Unfortunately Tucson doesn't utilize carpool lanes so the only advantage is saving money on gas!

Carpoolworld.com

ERideshare.com

Read more!